In any American sport, quite a bit can change over a month’s time. Any sports-related discussion you have will usually be rendered irrelevant when revisited a month later — your information will become outdated and your arguments and projections will need to be adjusted.
But we’re talking about the Colorado Rockies, so it’s not really a question of how much has changed. Pick any month from June on, and it’s just a matter of how much farther they’ve fallen down the sinkhole.
When I began an email exchange with my friend and Rockies Zingers writer Adam Peterson on July 20, the Rockies were in the same dire situation they’re in now. Now it’s just a bit worse, as Colorado has fallen further into the cellar of the NL West — 22 games back rather than 14 — and Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are both out with season-ending injuries.
Who/what/when/where/why/how can things better? One of the problems may be that there are too many problems — too much going wrong to zero in on what needs to be done to fix the situation. Leave it to Adam to figure that out. Offering perhaps the most articulate and incisive view of the Rockies you’ll find in the blogosphere, Adam gives us his thoughts on what needs to change (collected from July 20-August 2):
To get things rolling in a big-picture sense — before we start handing out blame or assessing the situation in detail — how would you characterize the general state of affairs for the Rockies right now?
The Major League product is a bit of a disaster right now. When the Tanking LAstros (update: not last anymore, but nickname still appropriate) have a better record than you, its hard to argue they are anything better than dinosaur manure. The Rockies are bad this year, that is an objective fact. But even then it is not that straightforward and needs nuance. At one point in June the Rockies had about 35% of their entire payroll on the disabled list. To date, Blackmon and LeMahieu are the only regulars outside of the bullpen (more on that in a moment) who have not spent time on the disabled list. When evaluating the 2014 Rockies, I believe this is actually getting glossed over too much (this may be due in large part to the PR ineptitude of the owner, but we’ll get to that later) because injuries are so often seen as an excuse (but then again, look at the Rangers). Any team that has to dip down to their 15th starting pitcher is going to have a bad year. When you are getting into your second and third strings at multiple positions at once, you are going to have a bad year–even if the Rockies did break camp with 6 outfielders. The reality is no GM plans down to the 3rd string option at multiple positions because, at that point, you’re probably sunk anyway.
Part of what happens when you have a bunch of injuries is that you have to reach into your depth is you get a bunch of players who have no business being on a Major League field. To put it one way, for every Corey Dickerson, there are two Charlie Culbersons. This is, of course, what happened with the starting pitching. First Tyler Chatwood went down, which meant Franklin Morales took over (a move which hurt the bullpen, which is where Franklin belongs–well, if he belongs anywhere at all). This kept happening until you get to the point you think to yourself “Well, why not Jair Jurrjens?” Think about it: Jordan Lyles, Christian Bergman, and Eddie Butler, all thought to be valuable replacements in that starting rotation, got hurt! And that doesn’t even include the injuries to Chatwood and Anderson and whatever was happening with Chacin. What this exposes is that the Rockies didn’t have much Major League ready talent at the Triple-A level (well, outside the outfield, which is why we carried 6 OFs for a while). Injuries aren’t just bad because you lose good players, it means you have to replace them with bad players.
That being said, there is more going on here than just injuries. The bullpen, which wasn’t necessarily viewed as a strength coming into the season, has not been up to par. I just had a enlightening interaction on Twitter with Michael Litchman (an excellent sabermatrician and co-author of The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, which I heartily recommend) in which he pointed out, essentially, that “Hey, this bullpen HAS been bad, but this is not the true talent level. He is a big proponent of the projection systems and wrote up a great analysis of why they are trustworthy (check out this post by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs for an executive summary of his points). In short, the bullpen–which has been the most flawed part of the team without the excuse of injuries–can not, and will not stay, this bad. Here are the money tweets: “Rox bullpen is actually pretty good” and Rockies “not terrible.” I’m hoping to do a more prolonged write up of this point based on his suggestion of checking the Rest Of Season Projections soon so keep an eye out for that.
We also must consider what the expectations are. Don’t ask the owner, who not only runs the team but wants to sell tickets; he cannot be considered an objective source. But if you look into what many baseball experts predicted (Sporting News is particularly informative, as they used the Vegas Over/Under Odds, and Vegas rarely is too far off), the Rockies were thought of, at best, as an 80 win team–and that’s the BEST CASE scenario I heard. Why is it important to keep this in mind? Because the vitriol in Denver media (one of the few perks to living outside the Denver area–less punditry) might have you believing that the Rockies were NL West title contenders this season. Over at Rockies Zingers Eric Garcia McKinley did a great write up of this point earlier this month. Injuries were a huge factor here, but, reasonably, we shouldn’t have too high of expectations.
Why not huge expectations? Because 2014 wasn’t our year to threaten/contend. Everyone readily acknowledges that teams go through “contention cycles.” These cycles are far more linear in the NFL for reasons that we won’t dive into here, but they certainly exist in baseball. 2006-2011 was the last real window of contention for the Rockies, and about the time that a series of bad drafts (Greg Reynolds, Casey Weathers, etc) started to bite them in the butt. In Denver, with the Broncos raising everyone’s expectations, we expect that the Rockies have to contend because we have Cargo & Tulo signed. But that’s not the way contention cycles work in MLB. It’s about the players you put around that core. That’s why I’ve been saying since March that 2015 was when the Rockies window was set to open. Why? Tulo & Cargo would still be in their prime years, Nolan Arenado would be beginning to enter his prime in his age-24 season, and Corey Dickerson would be ready to graduate up to the team (granted, I was a little late in my prediction there). Not only that but, assuming we didn’t have any huge setbacks from De La Rosa, Chacin, & Chatwood, we’d be able to add top pitching prospects Jon Gray and Eddie Butler to that mix (and 5th-7th starters from the group of Nicasio, Matzek, Bergman, Lyles, & others). Before these injuries (which likely set this back at least half a season if not more), it was my prediction that 2015 the Rockies would be a force to be reckoned with. And, if you take a glace at the list of top Rockies prospects at their ETA dates, you’d have to at least entertain the notion that the next great Rockies team is right around the corner. Names like Story, Dahl, Parker, Tapia, Anderson and others would open the window for the next 5 years and, assuming the front office HAS figured out how to draft & develop, it could go on for a while longer.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m not saying the Rockies have the best minor league system in baseball–by most accounts they are probably just above average–but I do believe that the talent they do have isn’t far from contention–assuming the front office doesn’t screw everything up. Which leads me to my next point.
Before I give you my thoughts, I will direct you to Bryan Kilpatrick’s excellent examination of the state of the Rockies front office, in which he brings in thoughts from scouts, execs, former players, and trusted experts from around the industry.
The front office has to do something. I’m not a proponent of changing mid-stream (meaning firing anyone midseason would only appease the fanbase, not necessarily mean good baseball moves). I will say that Dan O’Dowd & Co. have done a much better job in the past two years or so than in the previous 12. Really, had the Rockies not fluked their way into a World Series berth (and, don’t kid yourself, with baseball, 8 teams in the playoffs means hardly anybody is “destined” to get to the World Series–it does take some level of flukiness–just ask Billy Beane), DOD likely would have been gone shortly thereafter. Since he did, he bought himself some time and, if you evaluate the baseball moves this team has made since 2012, there isn’t much to argue with, in my opinion. That being said, something is clearly wrong and the buck has to stop somewhere. Whether it’s the two-headed GM system (or one or the other), or player development (or, hey, here’s a thought, the training staff?), somebody needs to go and soon.
My conclusion is that, in general, it’s bad. But it isn’t nearly as bad as those in the Denver media or in the Rockies fanbase (a crew Drew Creasman of Purple Row recently suggested be called The Hyperbolic Chamber) would have you believe. Oh, and trading Tulowitzki would simply doom the Rockies to an even LONGER period of rebuilding, which isn’t okay since they seem to be just 1 or 2 years away from true contention (not Monfort contention). That and, if they do trade Tulowitzki, then I will burn Utica to the ground.
A very comprehensive picture of the situation, and you really address all sides of the issue. My follow-ups:
1) You say that the next great Rockies team is right around the corner, in the context of some minor league stars currently making their way through the Rockies’ system. But with the shoddy work that the organization’s talent development has done at the minor league level, how can we have any confidence in the farm system’s ability to turn the minor-league studs into great major leaguers? As you acknowledged, it’s clear that the Rockies’ talent development system is incredibly flawed, and we’ve heard for years about uber-talented prospects that seem to perennially fizzle out. Moreover, if those prospects do turn out to be great in the majors, the front office’s ineptitude in both drafting and dealing makes it hard to build a support system for those stars. Don’t all of these factors drastically slow down the rebuilding process?
Your prediction is that it’s only a matter of one to two years until the Rockies are in true contention, not Monfort’s dumbed-down idea of contention. (That’s an important distinction, considering that Monfort thought the Rockies were “in the playoff hunt” as of July 8, when his club was 38-53 and 12.5 games back.) Right now, I believe your prediction to be quite steep. Since there’s no indication that any large-scale changes to the talent-development system or its personnel are going to happen, how can we have any confidence in saying that this next crop of guys will be able to make much of a difference?
2) Although I completely agree that it would be foolish to TRY to trade Troy Tulowitzki, it’s hard not to think that if you were in his shoes, you would want out. The Rockies organization is a mess, and I can think of at least a dozen teams that would be in pennant or World Series contention with him around. Ken Rosenthal brought up the fact that Tulo would be open to a trade, and if any front office would be foolish enough to make that deal, it would be the Rockies’. Not that I want you to envision burning Utica to the ground, but how realistic do you think the possibility of a trade is? If it happened, where would be on a scale of one to “world explodes in a fiery ball of gas”?
3) Excluding Tulo, what kind of deals do you see the Rockies making before the trade deadline? And although this might produce an entirely different response, what types of deals would you like to see? (Answered after the August 31 trade deadline)
1) While I do believe that there are some flaws in the player development system, I see it as more confined to the pitching side. In fact, our player development has done quite well in producing hitters over the Dan O’Dowd era. Take a look at Baseball America’s Top 10 Rockies Prospects for 2014, then check them going back every two years–not much changes from year to year (2012, 2010, 2008, 2006). What I want to point out is how often the Rockies have been able to graduate good hitting talent–and how poorly they’ve done with pitching talent (of course, the TINSTAAPP applies here). This only provides a brief snapshot but the Rockies have done a good job bringing up that offensive talent and making them into at least average major leaguers–which is no knock; an average major leaguer is actually a very valuable player (ex from this year’s club: Dickerson, Blackmon, Rutledge, Rosario, McKenry). It would be one thing to criticize the Rockies for their inability to create superstars, which, while valid, would be a bit ingenuous since we rarely find those types of players on the same team at the same time (which is a strong argument for keeping Tulo & CarGo together, but I digress).
The saying in prospect circles is “Talent wins out.” If you have talented players, they will find their way onto major league rosters. What we see with the Rockies is, from a lineup standpoint, the FO has managed to build a support system for those stars, with many more talented guys currently working their way up the system (Tapia, Dahl, Story, Parker, and more). The lineup does not concern me because the Rockies–since their nadir in about 2006-2008–have improved as a drafting organization, bringing in better players with higher ceilings into their system than they had previously (which is part of the reason the team has been so bad the past 3 years–an empty system graduating up to the big league level).
I did say that I have my doubts about their ability to graduate top pitching talent (and those BA Top 10s surely bear that out). What many consider is the difference with Gray and Butler is that they are, by FAR, the best Rockies pitching prospects they’ve had in the system, at least from a pure talent perspective. Between that and their steady ascension up the Organization Rankings (from the mid-20s to the top 10 in baseball), the Rockies not only have talent, but they have GOOD talent coming up. Now, obviously a lot can happen but, since we are only 1.5 years into Mark Wiley’s new system-wide pitching philosophy implementation, I’m in the camp that is cautiously optimistic. With the new prognoses on Chatwood and Chacin (out of a good chunk, if not all, of 2015), 2015 is looking more and more like a pipe dream. However, if they can lock down good-not-great pitchers Jorge De La Rosa and Brett Anderson for the next few years, I think the pitching talent graduating through the system, in addition to the lineup they have built, I believe we can look at 2016 as the opening of the contention window–especially as the Dodgers’ and Giants’ cores age and begin sucking down the lineup (a consideration which I didn’t mention last time and only have time to gloss over now).
2) The possibility of a trade of Tulowitzki, as things stand now, is almost zero. Purple Row writer Drew Creasman and I discussed this on the blogger panel: Troy Tulowitzki is perhaps the most indispensable player in baseball, and you don’t trade a player like that for his benefit (unless he’s in a Larry Walker “Twilight of My Career” stage). The fact of the matter is, the arguments for trading Tulo are a lot weaker than the arguments for keeping him, and the front office is keenly aware of that. While they would have to be delusional to think they are in the same place of the contention cycle as the Red Sox or Rangers and therefore need to see a deal that would “make them better in 2015.” The organization thinks that 2015 is still their window. I’m not on board with that so much anymore (this is mostly influenced by the losses of Chatwood and Chacin for next year), but I’ll get more into that with your next question.
The thing I bristle most with is this characterization that “If any front office is dumb enough to make a trade for Tulo, it’s the Rockies.” A trade like that would be completely out of character for the Rockies, not because they are smart, but because they are a different kind of stupid. The Rockies front office is loyal to a fault. That is why they were unable to get any kind of real value from Brad Hawpe, Garret Atkins, Ian Stewart, Chris Nelson, EY Jr, or Dexter Fowler (though, that is a far more complicated story, and it turns out, in hindsight, we got plenty of value for him) or a host of other players–they held onto them well past their peak, after they were useless, not only to the Rockies, but to most of baseball. If they are going to make a mistake, it will be like that: they will hold onto him too long and it’ll be 2019 and he’ll be expensive and we’ll have better guys pushing him out of position but, by then, nobody will take him and it’ll be Todd Helton all over again. And it will be wonderful–even though I’m a little sad now thinking about it.
I don’t foresee them making a Ubaldo-esque deal here: Ubaldo was fairly temperamental, vocal about not getting a Tulo or Cargo deal and willing to hide injuries from the training staff. Tulo has been straight up with everyone and, even when you consider his comments, he is not going to get that kind of treatment. Everyone wants to play for a winner; some people just have to wait a little bit longer (hey, John Elway, Ray Bourque, Todd Helton), some people are whiners about it and then end up playing for non-winners anyway (sup, Carmelo). Tulo is frustrated and I don’t blame him. But this front office will not move Tulo unless he gives them a reason to do so. He still might, but now is not the time. Struggling teams are not organ donors for the contending teams–think about if the Pirates had traded Andrew McCutcheon back in 2010 or 2011 when they were really stinking up the place!
Again, the possibility of trade now is zero, and only up to about a puncher’s chance when we hit the offseason. However, it will take, as Drew Creasman noted, “a trade of the century” for another team to get him next year, which is somewhat below “world explodes in a ball of fiery gas” but not much.
3) With the trade deadline already passed, I must say I am disappointed, but not surprised, the Rockies didn’t make any moves. I would have liked to see what they could have gotten out of Drew Stubbs, who is having a career year that is unlikely to repeat itself (his tOPS+ this year stands at 74 v RHP and 143 v LHP, compared to 87/133 for his career, and his home/road splits this year are way out of line for his career: 184/79 vs 120/82). This would be a classic sell high and if anyone was willing to give something up for Stubbs, the Rockies should have jumped on it. However, other GMs can look at tOPS+ more easily than I can so it’s likely the Rockies didn’t see any good offers for Stubbs, if they saw any at all. Also, a good, cheap reliever/closer like LaTroy Hawkins would’ve been nice to move, but since he’ll only cost $2M next year, I’m not in-hate with not moving him like some others are–building a bullpen is hard enough as it is.
I have to point to Jordan Freemyer’s piece on Purple Row about the Rockies standing pat at the deadline. The one thing I take issue with is his citing the Rockies holes at outfield and catcher as evidence to them being “closer to an all-out-rebuild” than contention. Far as I can tell, he believes a lefty-heavy outfield of Dickerson-Blackmon-Cargo is a minus, but considering their ability and talent level, I don’t agree at all. Kyle Parker profiles as an ideal 4th OF/backup 1B and is ready for the majors now and Brandon Barnes can fill a similar role. While the catcher position is more complicated, I don’t think Wilin Rosario is nearly as bad as he’s played this year. The pitching staff does need a lot of help but with better health, promotions, and a few savvy moves, I think the Rockies can improve there without having to enter into “full rebuild” as so many have suggested.
I”ll also direct you to my piece on Rockies Zingers which brings out a couple of the great points brought up from our panel. We don’t necessarily have to trust the front office, but we do have to acknowledge that they won’t tell us everything (example: maybe the offers they were getting weren’t at all good, based on their proprietary talent evaluation systems–we may never know). But the biggest thing is they need to fill that leadership vacuum that was left by Kelli McGregor’s untimely death (a point I dive into a bit more on my post).
MattyJBlog 